Everything is Arbitrary

Mathematical Models

Episode Summary

Models are pervasive, but you don't see them. They affect our lives in a range of ways: weather forecasting, political polling, search engines, bridge design, insurance costs, economic crashes, crashes on Mars... In order to make them we have to pick and choose what data to abstract and what to ignore. And sometimes those choices can be arbitrary. Listen to mathematician Lindon Roberts talk about the problems with mathematical models, and why we use them anyway.

Episode Notes

Royalty free music from Danosongs.

Read more about the Seven Bridges of Königsberg:

• https://www.mathsisfun.com/activity/seven-bridges-konigsberg.html

Links about weather modelling:

• http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/about/about_access.shtml
• http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/bulletins/nmoc_bulletin.shtml

More about the sad story of the Mars Climate Orbiter:

• https://www.wired.com/2010/11/1110mars-climate-observer-report/

What's wrong with opinion polls:

• https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/20/mathematics-does-not-lie-why-polling-got-the-australian-election-wrong
• https://reason.com/2016/01/14/why-polls-dont-work/
• https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-trouble-with-polling
• https://theconversation.com/heres-how-to-make-opinion-polls-more-representative-and-honest-117405

And how we don't grieve in five stages:

• https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20130219-are-there-five-stages-of-grief
• https://blog.sevenponds.com/professional-advice/why-doesnt-everyone-go-through-the-five-stages-of-grief-an-interview-with-dr-paul-coleman-part-two